Euro 2024 final update: is football coming home?

With each stage of this year’s European Championship, the probability of football coming home has risen. While Spain are favourites to win the final on Sunday, England have a 27% chance of lifting the trophy without a shoot-out – and around a 41% chance allowing for extra time and penalties.

Viewing figures in the UK for this past week’s European Championship semi-final between England and the Netherlands in the UK are estimated to have peaked at 20.3 million people.

As England’s population is around 57 million, this means that almost half the nation was watching the match. The roads were quieter – and it seems clear that the whole country is a little distracted by the tournament (as economic research confirms can happen during big matches). Supermarkets and schools are admitting as much by allowing staff time off on Sunday and pupils to come in late on Monday.

Wrongs being righted and (unreliable?) perceptions

Part of the reason for all the excitement is the new stories that are being told, the memories made and, at least according to some perceptions, wrongs being righted.

England’s run to the final of a men’s international tournament outside England – the first time this has happened since the team began entering such competitions in 1950 (long after the World Cup began in 1930) – immediately grabs the attention. Finals are undoubtedly select events – and one only comes along every other year.

Since the tournament launched in 1960, there have been 17 European Championship finals (plus 22 World Cup finals) – and 13 different European countries have participated in them. Prior to 2021, England hadn’t reached a single one, and indeed had only reached one final of any sort – the fabled World Cup final at Wembley back in 1966.

With a population the size of England’s, and with a relatively highly developed footballing infrastructure stretching back, essentially, to before any other country played the game formally, such a record is striking. In that time, Germany have made it to six Euros finals and eight World Cup finals – and Italy have reached ten Euros or World Cup finals.

This points, naturally, to questions about the institutional organisation in different countries. There is no reason to believe that a country’s GDP alone should qualify them for the latter stages of major football tournaments. If it were, the United States would be a footballing superpower.

It is, of course, possible that the nature of knock-out tournaments reduces the probability of any country progressing. After all, even if a team like England or Spain has a 60% chance of winning each knock-out match, they would only have a 22% chance of winning three.

This makes the German performances of the 1970s, 80s and 90s all the more remarkable, when they made ten out of 13 Euros or World Cup finals between 1972 and 1996. Perhaps, in reality, our perceptions of how frequently countries should make the latter stages of tournaments are shaped by this stunning aberration.

If England had a 5% chance of making the final of each tournament it entered, it would make the final once in every 20 tournaments. There have been 39 World Cups and Euros from 1930 to the present, and hence three out of 39 is better odds. It’s just that, like Germany, things have been a little bunched together, with two appearances in three years.

But maybe a wrong is being righted here – just as many claim is the case with England beating the Netherlands assisted by a controversial penalty call. Harry Kane was caught by Dutch defender Denzel Dumfries in the penalty area on Wednesday after the England captain had put a shot over the bar.

The referee on field did not award a penalty, but he was instructed by his video assistant referee (VAR) team to review the incident, and then awarded a penalty to England. ITV’s VAR expert Christina Unkel did not think it should have been given at the time, and she explains why, very clearly, here. It’s a fascinating insight into crucial decision-making at the heart of a high-stakes tournament.

But a wrong being righted? In a key 1993 World Cup qualifying match, a controversial non-penalty decision (and associated non-issuance of a red card – coincidentally enough for the current Dutch manager, Ronald Koeman) shaped many narratives. A fly-on-the-wall TV documentary about then England manager Graham Taylor launched the famous phrase ‘do I not like that!’, which was essentially based on that moment.

Tournaments are tools of economic theory

So, another wrong being righted, famous narratives being written? Certainly, fans have long memories – although perhaps selective ones, since the Dutch had a goal very wrongly ruled out for offside early in that match.

Nonetheless, while studying tournaments may feel instinctively like the realm of sporty types, it is worth noting that this has clear economic applications – most notably in the workplace with competitions for promotion and other important outcomes. As Tim Harford has written, ‘Lazear and Rozen's tournament theory has stood the test of time and been supported by many subsequent pieces of empirical research. It also passes the smell test: The more grotesque your boss's pay and the less he has to do to earn it, the bigger the motivation for you to work for a promotion.’

So, what about this final of a tournament on Sunday? The 17^th European Championship showdown won’t be the closest matched final in history by some margin: in fact, it’ll be right in the middle of all historical finals. According to our balance measure – elo*(1-elo), it is the tenth most balanced final out of 17. Russia against Yugoslavia in 1960 and Italy versus Yugoslavia in 1968 are the two most balanced in history, followed by England versus Italy in 2021.

Some of the more mismatched finals might offer England a little encouragement this weekend. Although the three biggest mismatches (the Czechs against the Germans in 1996; Belgium versus Germany in 1980; and Spain versus Italy in 2012) went to form, the next three did not: Panenka’s Czechoslovakian team beat Germany in 1976; Denmark beat Germany in 1992; and perhaps most memorably, Greece beat Portugal in 2004.

Expected goals, expected outcomes

What might be expected in terms of goals? Finals do tend to be tight matches; of the previous 16 Euros finals, eight have been decided by a single goal, and two have gone to penalties – the famous Panenka shoot-out in 1976 and the Euro 2020 final (which, because of the Covid-19 pandemic, actually took place in 2021) between England and Italy.

Figure 1: Goals scored in Euros finals

Source: UEFA

While on average, finals haven’t been low-scoring with 2.4 goals per game, in recent years goals have been few and far between: in 2004, 2008 and 2016, the only goal of the game decided the trophy’s destination, and before that in 1996 and 2000, the final’s most common scoreline – 2-1 – was the outcome for Germany and France, respectively.

Five finals have finished 2-1, coincidentally the scoreline by which both Spain and England edged their semi-finals in the current tournament.

But our expected goals measure, based on our Elo ratings, suggests that Spain’s expected goals are 1.34 and England’s 1.00. Hence, the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw in regulation time.

Has our expected goals measure done well, historically? Certainly, it was close in 2021 when we had Italy at 0.97 and England at 1.19 (1-1 draw). But in 2016, France, whom were expected to score 1.5, scored none and conceded just one goal to winners Portugal (whom we had at 0.82 goals).

Over all 17 finals, our measure of total goals has been out by 0.1 goals. This might be some reassurance to those worrying about Spain repeating their performance from the 2012 final, when they beat Italy 4-0.

But it is inescapable that Spain are the favourites; even the bookmakers price them at 40% for the win. Our model implies that they are about 45% likely to win the match without needing penalties. England have a 27% chance of winning without needing penalties. And there’s a 27% chance that, just as in 2021, the final will go to penalties – when it’s anyone’s game (though see my Economics Observatory piece ahead of the 2022 World Cup final).

The Elo prediction is 0.59, suggesting that factoring in extra time and penalties as options, Spain are about 60% to win and England 40%.

So, as with each stage of the tournament, the probability of football coming home has increased. On Sunday, there’s a 41% chance that England’s men’s team can bring home the European Championship trophy for the first time. Come on England!