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With extreme heat becoming more common in the UK, nature-based urban cooling from green spaces and bodies of water can create economic value by protecting productivity and lowering expenditure on air conditioning. This is a measurable example of how natural capital supports economic activity.

Where you grow up shapes who you know – and who you know shapes where you end up, not least in terms of your earnings later in life. Research is revealing that the way in which social connections are distributed across places is closely linked to economic opportunities.

Colombia’s new president has inherited a fragile economy – and he has already promised sweeping changes to promote economic stability. The success of his approach will hinge on how well the proposed shock therapy can be balanced against a tough social backdrop and cautious international markets.

Chile has lurched between very different political ideologies in recent years. The latest swing – towards a more market-oriented, right-leaning administration – should be interpreted as a call for a more effective state, not necessarily a smaller one.

India has made substantial progress in shifting towards more renewable energy sources, with both wind and solar capacity having grown rapidly in recent years. But many challenges remain, with energy independence now a central part of the government’s economic ambitions.

With the tournament now down to its final four, scorecasting analysis suggests that Argentina’s likelihood of retaining the trophy is up to 42%. Spain are on 22% to win, France 20% and England outsiders at 15%. There’s a 10% chance of England beating Argentina 1-0 – and a 21% chance of a 1-0 defeat.

Scotland’s unwanted record of being the only team with as many as nine World Cup appearances never to have reached the knockout stage continues. Their fans look on enviously as other nations of comparable and smaller populations have fought on in the competition, some of them doing so consistently.

Europe and South America are overwhelmingly likely to provide the winner of the tournament – but there is a 3% chance of an African country lifting the trophy. Argentina remain by some distance the most probable champions, at 33%, followed by France and Spain, both at 12%, and England, at 9%.

France’s educational system spends heavily but delivers unequal outcomes for pupils, mainly driven by differences in their social background. A targeted, low-cost policy framework, combining tutors and adaptive technology, could help to change that without new legislation or major fiscal commitment.

The first round of World Cup Groups G and H takes place today and tomorrow, bringing highly favoured Spain into the action. Scorecasting economics suggests that like the Germans, the Spanish team should win their opening match comfortably. Three points also look likely for Belgium, Iran and Uruguay.

Scorecasting economics suggests that Argentina have a far higher probability of winning the 2026 World Cup than the bookies’ co-favourites, France and Spain. England’s trophy-winning likelihood is 8%; while Scotland have a 71% chance of finally going beyond the group stage of a big tournament.

Economic inactivity has historically been higher in Northern Ireland than in the rest of the UK. Policies to address inactivity have long been in place, but there is a lack of understanding of the specific barriers facing people that lead them to be neither in employment nor actively seeking work.

Elections in the ten boroughs of Greater Manchester provide voters with an opportunity to pass judgement on Labour nationally. But the results may also reflect views on what’s been happening across the city-region, where productivity growth has been strong, and public health and transport improved.

Where you grow up shapes who you know – and who you know shapes where you end up, not least in terms of your earnings later in life. Research is revealing that the way in which social connections are distributed across places is closely linked to economic opportunities.

El Salvador’s government overhauled the country’s security policy and ended gang violence, lifting what was thought to be the main constraint on the economy. There have been measurable improvements in such areas as emigration, exports and investment – but to date, growth has improved only modestly.

A new commodities boom – triggered by the global transitions to clean energy and digital technology – is driving up demand for copper. Peru is one of the world’s leading producers of the metal, but political instability, weak institutions and illegal mining could curtail any potential gains.

India’s Vision 2047 development strategy is often framed as a race to high-income status. But state-level evidence shows that converting growth into health, education and human capability is a harder and more consequential task. The core challenge is to make growth work harder for human development.

With just eight teams remaining in the tournament, Argentina have a 36% chance of lifting the trophy, Spain are at 18%, France at 17% and England at 15%. Scorecasting analysis suggests that the most likely result of England’s encounter with Norway is a 2-1 victory for Harry Kane and his team-mates.

People’s wellbeing at work is influenced by various features of their jobs, including autonomy, intensity and prospects. Researchers use surveys to track these dimensions of working life and measure their contribution to social progress. Many of them cannot be improved through economic growth alone.

What happens in the Persian Gulf will be crucial for the path of inflation in the UK over the next 12 months. The most desirable outcome will happen if the peace deal holds, the Strait of Hormuz is re-opened and remains open, and the damage to energy infrastructure in the region is limited.

The first round of World Cup Groups G and H takes place today and tomorrow, bringing highly favoured Spain into the action. Scorecasting economics suggests that like the Germans, the Spanish team should win their opening match comfortably. Three points also look likely for Belgium, Iran and Uruguay.

Scorecasting economics suggests that Argentina have a far higher probability of winning the 2026 World Cup than the bookies’ co-favourites, France and Spain. England’s trophy-winning likelihood is 8%; while Scotland have a 71% chance of finally going beyond the group stage of a big tournament.

Stimulating growth is one of the government’s top priorities. Traditionally, reducing labour market insecurities has been pursued as a separate goal. But five policy areas could boost both productivity and equality: small and medium-sized firms, pay transparency, recruitment, localism and training.