What do we know about voter turnout in parliamentary elections?

Voter turnout has declined in recent decades, reaching a 20-year low in the UK’s 2024 general election. While overall turnout has fallen, some groups – including young people and ethnic minorities – are even less likely to cast their vote. Alternative electoral systems might boost voter engagement.

Every vote counts. Yet only around 60% of eligible voters went to the polls in the UK’s 2024 general election. This is down from 67% in 2019 and almost on a par with the 2001 general election when 59% of the electorate cast a vote. These proportions are also low by historical standards – in 1950, voter turnout stood at 83.9% (House of Commons Library, 2023).

Figure 1: Turnout at UK general elections, 1918-2024

Source: House of Commons Library, UK election statistics

As highlighted in a recent Economics Observatory article, voter turnout in the 2024 general election was especially low in many of the constituencies with a Labour incumbent.

Compared to parliamentary elections in European Union (EU) member states, voter turnout in the UK is in the middle of the pack. In the most recent general elections across the EU, turnouts ranged from 31.8% in Romania to 89.7% in Luxembourg, a country where voting is compulsory (more on this below). The latest figures suggest that around 63% of eligible voters cast their ballot in the second round of the recent parliamentary elections in France – a five-decade high.

Who is voting – and crucially, who is not?

High voter turnout is a sign of a healthy democracy. It is therefore important to look at the share of the electorate who are not voting and whether there are any policies that might work to increase engagement.

The final figures for voter turnout by constituency in the UK’s latest election are still being updated and these will include the new parliamentary constituencies. One BBC report suggests that turnout was lowest in Manchester Rusholme at 40%, while in Richmond Park in West London, 76% of voters cast their ballot – though this was still lower than in any general election since 2005.

We can still look to the data from the 2019 general election to identify some patterns.

First, in 2019, across the constituent nations, voting was highest in Scotland at 68.1%. East Dunbartonshire – Scotland’s most marginal constituency – also had the highest turnout of any in the UK, at 80.3%. Comparably, a much lower proportion of voters went to the polls in Northern Ireland: 61.8% on average.

Overall in 2019, regional turnout was highest in the South East (70.2%) and South West (72%) of England. At the other end of the scale, the 30 constituencies with the lowest voter turnout were all in the Midlands, the North of England or Northern Ireland. In Kingston upon Hull East, less than half of eligible voters cast their ballot (49.3%).

Figure 2: General election voter turnout by constituency, 2019

Source: House of Commons Library

Second, age matters. Turnout tends to be higher in constituencies with a larger proportion of older residents. But the difference between older and younger voters was not always so stark. In the 1964 election, 76.4% of 18-24-year-olds cast their vote, compared with 76.7% of over-65s.

In recent years, turnout has been at least 20 percentage points lower among the 18-24 age group than for those aged over 65. In 2019, the turnout rates were estimated to be 47% versus 74% (see Figure 3). Note that these figures are estimates, based on surveys of voters.

Figure 3: General election voter turnout by age, 2019

Source: IPSOS Mori, 2019

Evidence suggests that there is also divergence among younger voters, with those from poorer backgrounds less likely to vote than their better-off peers (Jungkunz and Marx, 2023). In addition, education has an impact, particularly among girls and young women.

One study shows that by their teenage years, girls are less likely to express an interest in politics than boys – a gap that widens by the age of 30, particularly for those women with lower-level and upper-secondary vocational qualifications, such as B-Tech (Janmaat et al, 2022).

A recent YouGov poll indicates that 37% of those aged 18-24 do not believe that their vote was important to the general election results. This compares with a national average of 29% and 23% among the over-65s.

Alongside an ageing population, some argue that this trend is leading to politics – and an economy – that is organised in a way that makes of priority of the interests of older voters (Vlandas, 2023).

Third, individuals from lower socio-economic backgrounds are less likely to vote, with ‘growing gaps across income, education and homeownership’ (Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2022; Resolution Foundation, 2024).

Evidence suggests that rising inequality is accompanied by growing mistrust of democratic institutions, suppressing voter turnout (Bienstman et al, 2023). Further, those in ‘left-behind areas’ – where the availability of public services and local shops has declined – are more likely to disengage from political life, with residents believing that politicians will not make a different to their life circumstances (Bourdin and Tai, 2021).

Lastly, voter turnout is lower among some ethnic minority groups. According to the Electoral Commission, the people who are least likely to be registered or to vote in the UK are from communities of black Caribbean and black African heritage. In contrast, registration rates among some communities of Asian heritage are as high, or higher, than among the white population.

Research indicates that there is an overlap with the effects of socio-economic background, with socio-economic marginalisation being the most ‘significant obstacle to full participation’ (Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 2021). This study also shows that minorities who are UK citizens are more likely to vote, which highlights the link between citizen status and the sense of involvement in the country’s politics.

Reasons for not being registered or not voting among minorities include political alienation or apathy, fear of harassment, impact (a view that voting will not make a difference), language barriers, administrative inefficiency and having recently moved (Electoral Commission, 2002).

Policies affecting voter turnout

The UK is not alone in having declining levels of voter turnout. One study suggests that globally, the proportion of the electorate casting their vote has dropped by ten percentage points (Kostelka and Blais, 2021). Some countries have alternative systems – such as compulsory voting or a lower voting age – to increase the number of votes cast.

In the UK, recent legislation means that voters are now required to show identification at the polling station. There have been concerns that this change would affect certain voters more than others. Research indicates that ‘less educated, poorer, and older voters’ are less likely to have the necessary ID, preventing them from participating in the democratic process (Fieldhouse et al, 2023).

According to the Electoral Commission, in the May 2023 local elections in England, 37,000 people arrived without the correct ID and around 14,000 of them did not return. One survey suggests that as many as 400,000 people may have been turned away from the polling station because they lacked the necessary ID in the 2024 general election.

Other initiatives, such as lowering the voting age, seek to increase the number of eligible voters. Countries that allow 16-year-olds to vote include Argentina, Austria and Brazil (see Figure 4).

Figure 4: Legal voting age by country

Source: CIA world factbook

In Scotland too, 16- and 17-year-olds can vote in local and Scottish parliamentary elections. They were also eligible to vote in the referendum on Scottish independence in 2014, and around 75% of the age group voted on that occasion.

Research from the Scottish referendum indicates that young people who are given the right to vote are both more likely to continue voting as they get older and to do so in higher numbers (Eichhorn and Huebner, 2023). In Austria too, 16-year-old voters were more likely to cast their ballot than older first-time voters and expressed relatively high levels of trust in democratic participation (Eichhorn and Bergh, 2020).

Further, contrary to views that younger voters lack the ability and motivation to participate effectively in elections, evidence suggests that those under the age of 18 ‘cast votes in ways that enable their interests to be represented equally well’ as older voters (Wagner et al, 2012).

Automatic voter registration or compulsory voting are also policies employed to increase voter turnout. One study suggests that up to eight million people in the UK were either missing or not correctly registered for local government elections in December 2022. The author advocates automatic registration as a way to improve accuracy and completeness of the register.

Compulsory voting in national elections is in place in 13% of countries around the world. These include Australia, Belgium, Luxembourg and Singapore (see Figure 5). In Australia and Singapore, this is enforced through measures such as fines.

Figure 5: Compulsory voting by country

Source: IDEA database

Critics of compulsory voting, and the use of sanctions to enforce it, argue that it is inconsistent with democratic freedom and that it can disproportionately affect disadvantaged groups.

Supporters cite the educational effect of participation, the savings from political parties not having to spend resources on increasing voter turnout, and the legitimacy given to governments by higher voter participation.

What is clear is the effect on voter turnout. In their most recent elections, 95.8% and 89.7% of the electorate in Singapore and Australia, respectively, voted (see Figure 6).

Figure 6: UK voter turnout versus compulsory turnout

Source: IDEA database and Electoral Commission

Some argue that electoral systems that use proportional representation (PR) lead to higher voter turnout than those like first-past-the-post, as we have in the UK. Across Western democracies, the average turnout in countries with PR was 77% in elections since 2000, compared with 67% in non-PR countries.

Supporters argue that PR allows for a ‘greater number of viable political parties’, giving voters a more ‘meaningful choice’, as well as increased representation (Electoral Reform, 2022). On the other hand, sceptics highlight that comparing different countries’ elections is not simple and that the relationship between the electoral system and voter turnout is not causal. Specifically, other factors – whether cultural, demographic or institutional – affect voters’ decisions.

In the wake of the relatively low turnout in the UK’s latest general election and the imbalance between the vote share and parliamentary seat share of some political parties, issues around potential electoral reforms will no doubt be widely debated.