Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

Manchester City and the 114 verdict: what are the implications?

The verdict on Manchester City’s financial rule-breaking will have wide-ranging effects. In terms of this season’s Premier League, whatever punishment the club receives will benefit other teams: a deduction of 20 points or more would give Arsenal an 83% chance of winning the title and Liverpool 12%.

Productivity & growth

UK productivity: why is the frontier economy invisible to policy-makers?

The most productive, fastest-growing and most heavily invested part of the UK economy is invisible in the data that policy-makers use for decisions. A new classification of frontier firms reveals the scale of the gap – and the consequences for interest rates, industrial strategy and growth policy.

Lessons from history

How has the UK’s financial system changed over the past 100 years?

The UK’s financial system has been forged by economic shocks, political priorities and market changes. Over the past century, banks have come to play a bigger role, not least for firms looking to raise capital. Recent reforms seek to revive corporate equity and bond markets to support growth.

DATA HUB

Britain starts Googling its debt problem

UK searches for "government debt" sat relatively flat for two decades, then spiked to a record high in 2026. Jagjit Chadha asks whether the UK could need a 1976-style IMF bailout and where the real fix lies. Read more by clicking on the chart.

Lessons from history

How has the UK business cycle changed over the past 100 years?

Despite lessons from macroeconomics and economic history, recessions still strike with similar frequency and force to their predecessors. Business cycles remain unpredictable in their timing and severity – with spells of relative economic tranquillity or turbulence as much down to luck as policy.

MAGAZINE

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Debates about globalisation and trade policy have deep historical roots. Patterns in the goods and services bought and sold by the UK have shifted over the past century, alongside the framework that governs world trade – but international commerce remains a defining feature of the nation’s economy.

Lessons from history

How have UK businesses changed over the past 100 years?

The end of the British Empire, large-scale technological progress, an increasingly globalised world economy and big shifts in government policy have all affected UK businesses over the past century. But despite such changes, a number of British companies that were prominent in 1926 remain so today.

Lessons from history

How have UK industrial relations changed over the past 100 years?

As the centenary of the General Strike, 1926 is an apt starting point for considering how the governance of UK labour markets has evolved. But 1979 was the moment when the industrial relations system of high trade union and collective bargaining coverage reached maturity before falling into decline.

Lessons from history

How has unemployment in the UK changed over the past 100 years?

Unemployment has fallen over the last century, although it is currently rising once again. These figures are driven by both the performance of the economy and the match between workers’ skills and the vacancies that are available. Policy-makers need to understand the interactions between the two.

Lessons from history

Have economic inequalities in the UK narrowed over the past 100 years?

Both income and wealth inequality, as measured by the shares held by the top 1%, declined consistently in the UK from 1914. But there was an abrupt halt in both declines in the early 1980s. Since then, income inequality has risen while wealth inequality has appeared steady for over four decades.

Lessons from history

How has children’s health in the UK changed over the past 100 years?

Children today have better nutrition and access to clean water, sanitation and medical care than their counterparts a century ago. These improvements have led to falling rates of infectious diseases, and infant and child mortality – but new health concerns are emerging, including childhood obesity.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Has technology caused unemployment?

There are several historical precedents for large-scale and sustained unemployment following technological change. Understanding these past experiences will help researchers and policy-makers to have a clear view of the potential effects of artificial intelligence on the labour market.

Data stories

Live football on TV: should the Saturday 3pm blackout be lifted?

The absence of live TV matches on Saturday afternoons may inconvenience fans of England’s 20 best sides. But the many smaller clubs in the league pyramid below the top compete with the big teams for fans. Removing the blackout could significantly harm the nation’s unique footballing heritage.

Data stories

Why are official replica football shirts so expensive?

Football shirts have become much more expensive over the past decade. Supporters’ unwavering loyalty means that clubs possess unusual pricing power, but there are still alternatives. Economics helps to explain both why shirts cost so much and what might be the limits to fans’ willingness to pay.

Data stories

Scorecasting European club football: who will win the biggest prize?

Attention shifts to cross-border competition in football this week, as the UEFA Champions League kicks off. Britain has long bucked the sport’s broader economic trends – and England is particularly dominant. The Premier League’s top clubs all look set to progress deep in this season’s competition.

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