Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

What can we learn from a century of economic history?

Good economic history offers insights to policy-makers, showing them how crises have been navigated in the past, and the intended and unintended consequences of the actions of earlier governments.

Jobs, work, pay & benefits

Why are good jobs concentrated in certain places?

Good jobs exist everywhere in the UK – but the highest-paying roles remain heavily concentrated in London and the South East, and a small number of cities. Structural change has reinforced these patterns, raising difficult questions about how policy can help to spread opportunity more widely.

Productivity & growth

Is the UK on track for growth in every postcode?

Every UK region grew in 2024, but nearly a third of local authorities experienced a fall in total output that year. Analysing the latest official data helps to explain this striking variation – and offers an initial framework for assessing the prime minister’s promise of ‘growth in every postcode’.

DATA HUB

What is the state pension triple lock?

Since 2012 the state pension has risen each April by whichever is highest: earnings, prices or 2.5%. Earnings won 6 times, CPI 5, the floor 4. Next April looks set for a 3.9% rise, taking the full new state pension to about £250.70 a week.

Compounded, the full state pension has risen by 81% since April 2011, against 64% for earnings and 55% for prices.

Pensions, savings & investment

Can the UK afford the triple lock on state pensions?

The value of state pensions in the UK is protected by the so-called triple lock. This policy has led to substantial increases in payments to pensioners, raising questions about its affordability over the longer term.

MAGAZINE

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The verdict on Manchester City’s financial rule-breaking will have wide-ranging effects. In terms of this season’s Premier League, whatever punishment the club receives will benefit other teams: a deduction of 20 points or more would give Arsenal an 83% chance of winning the title and Liverpool 12%.

Productivity & growth

UK productivity: why is the frontier economy invisible to policy-makers?

The most productive, fastest-growing and most heavily invested part of the UK economy is invisible in the data that policy-makers use for decisions. A new classification of frontier firms reveals the scale of the gap – and the consequences for interest rates, industrial strategy and growth policy.

Lessons from history

How has the UK’s financial system changed over the past 100 years?

The UK’s financial system has been forged by economic shocks, political priorities and market changes. Over the past century, banks have come to play a bigger role, not least for firms looking to raise capital. Recent reforms seek to revive corporate equity and bond markets to support growth.

Lessons from history

How has the UK business cycle changed over the past 100 years?

Despite lessons from macroeconomics and economic history, recessions still strike with similar frequency and force to their predecessors. Business cycles remain unpredictable in their timing and severity – with spells of relative economic tranquillity or turbulence as much down to luck as policy.

Lessons from history

How has the UK’s trade changed over the past 100 years?

Debates about globalisation and trade policy have deep historical roots. Patterns in the goods and services bought and sold by the UK have shifted over the past century, alongside the framework that governs world trade – but international commerce remains a defining feature of the nation’s economy.

Lessons from history

How have UK businesses changed over the past 100 years?

The end of the British Empire, large-scale technological progress, an increasingly globalised world economy and big shifts in government policy have all affected UK businesses over the past century. But despite such changes, a number of British companies that were prominent in 1926 remain so today.

Lessons from history

How have UK industrial relations changed over the past 100 years?

As the centenary of the General Strike, 1926 is an apt starting point for considering how the governance of UK labour markets has evolved. But 1979 was the moment when the industrial relations system of high trade union and collective bargaining coverage reached maturity before falling into decline.

Lessons from history

How has unemployment in the UK changed over the past 100 years?

Unemployment has fallen over the last century, although it is currently rising once again. These figures are driven by both the performance of the economy and the match between workers’ skills and the vacancies that are available. Policy-makers need to understand the interactions between the two.

Lessons from history

Have economic inequalities in the UK narrowed over the past 100 years?

Both income and wealth inequality, as measured by the shares held by the top 1%, declined consistently in the UK from 1914. But there was an abrupt halt in both declines in the early 1980s. Since then, income inequality has risen while wealth inequality has appeared steady for over four decades.

Lessons from history

How has children’s health in the UK changed over the past 100 years?

Children today have better nutrition and access to clean water, sanitation and medical care than their counterparts a century ago. These improvements have led to falling rates of infectious diseases, and infant and child mortality – but new health concerns are emerging, including childhood obesity.

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