Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

Football economics: are the lower league clubs getting left behind?

The Premier League dominates football headlines. But across the country, lower division clubs play a key role in their local communities as well as developing talent. While chasing the higher-level leagues can be costly, some clubs are establishing enterprising initiatives, including in education.

Prices & interest rates

Could tensions between Iran and Israel trigger a new wave of inflation?

The immediate inflationary impact of widening conflict in the Middle East is likely to be limited. But potential trade and supply chain disruptions, weakening business sentiment and elevated uncertainty could have major consequences for the global economy. Governments face tough budgetary choices.

Lessons from history

Can there be a diversity premium in the housing market?

Research using historical data from Northern Ireland indicates that house prices are higher in more diverse neighbourhoods. Housing policy should focus on regenerating neighbourhoods, improving public services and fostering social integration.

DATA HUB

Turning up the heat: UK weather

Is the UK getting hotter?

June’s average temperature hit 15.2°C — the second-warmest on record (just behind June 2023). This spring was the warmest and sunniest ever.

Our #ChartOfTheDay shows how much warmer the UK has become over time.

Families & households

How can policy reduce food poverty among children?

Cash benefits boost poor families’ incomes, and if parents struggle to make appropriate spending choices, food vouchers can help them to buy more and better-quality food for their children. But many of the very poorest families fail to take up the vouchers or have restricted eligibility.

MAGAZINE

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Caps on the numbers of visitors allowed at certain destinations aim to relieve pressure on hotspots of overtourism. Their introduction presents an opportunity for other places to attract more tourists and students, boost their economies and promote a more sustainable and equitable tourism industry.

Trade & supply chains

What are the economic implications of the UK-EU reset deal?

The May 2025 ‘reset’ between the European Union and the UK addresses frictions that have emerged as a result of Brexit. The economic effects may be somewhat limited, but the agreement reflects political realities and brings stability at a time of heightened global uncertainty.

Prices & interest rates

How long will UK inflation stay above target?

The annual rate of increase in UK consumer prices has fallen slightly to 3.4% but remains above the Bank of England’s target of 2%. Data corrections and measurement quirks dominate this month’s marginal decline. Looking ahead, oil price volatility poses the main upside risk to the inflation outlook.

Trade & supply chains

How might a wider Middle East conflict affect the global economy?

The world economy is underperforming as a result of tight monetary policies, weaker global trade, a slowing Chinese economy and uncertainty around the US election. An escalation of conflict in the Middle East could increase uncertainties, harming inflation reduction efforts and hurting growth.

Trade & supply chains

What are the consequences of market power in supply chains?

Policy-makers understand that when firms have market power over the goods and services that they sell, consumers suffer. The consequences of market power in supply chains are less clear, but they also could harm consumers. Competition authorities are examining the research evidence.

News

What is a spending review – and why does it matter?

Tomorrow’s spending review will set out government spending plans for the NHS, housing, national defence, the police, and other public services. What should we expect?

Nations, regions & cities

What’s happening in Bangladesh’s garment industry?

Bangladesh is well-known for its low-cost production of textiles and clothing, with much of the country’s recent development resting on rapid growth in the garment industry. But behind this progress is an unsustainable reliance on low pay and poor working conditions, particularly for women.

Nations, regions & cities

How is China’s economy faring?

China’s economy has suffered from slow consumer spending and a slump in the real estate market. The unpredictable trade war with the United States risks further economic problems, but the current pause in tariff increases plus persistent stimulus from Beijing are keeping the worst outcomes at bay.

News

Style over substance

The fashion industry has changed dramatically over the past century, transformed from a collection of small Parisian boutiques into a multi-billion dollar international network of e-commerce giants. But today’s widespread availability of cheap garments comes with heavy human and environmental costs.

Data stories

What’s happening with jobs, vacancies and pay in the UK?

The latest UK labour market data paint a worrying picture. Unemployment is at its highest level since the pandemic; wage growth is slowing; and vacancies continue to fall. But it’s not all bad news: the slowdown in pay growth helps to ease upward pressures on inflation.

All Answers