Economics Observatory | Insights on the UK and global economy

Which taxes are best and worst for growth?

Tax affects economic growth by reducing consumer spending and lowering incentives to invest. But different fiscal policies have variable overall economic effects, with taxes on income better than those levied on corporate profits in terms of their wider impact on GDP.

Families & households

What’s changed through two decades of housing market dynamics?

Twenty-first century housing markets have had their ups and downs, but prices continue to rise. It’s win-win for the property-rich. Yet as corporate landlords and intermediaries open the door to institutional investors, it’s unclear where the route is to a fairer housing future.

Public spending, taxes & debt

One-off wealth taxes: what can we learn from history?

Over the last century, a number of countries have tried to introduce one-off wealth taxes or capital levies in response to major crises. Their varying degrees of success offer valuable lessons for policy-makers exploring such an option in the wake of the pandemic.

DATA HUB

International arms exports

Who supplies the world’s weapons?

The global arms trade is heavily concentrated. Over 43% of global arms exports originate from the United States – more than the combined total of the next nine countries.

Saudi Arabia is its biggest customer, receiving 12% of all US arms exports.

Business, big & small

Rugby union in England: how can financial sustainability be achieved?

With clubs posting significant losses and a number going out of business, the future of rugby union in England is uncertain. Recent boosts in attendance and TV viewers offer promise, but significant structural changes to the sport are required – to governance, revenue and salaries.

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The Hundred cricket competition will soon have a new ownership structure. The sale of franchises will provide funds for the sport’s grassroots. But differences in the types of owners and ownership structures may bring bigger changes, including to TV rights and the county game.

Nations, regions & cities

Football economics: are the lower league clubs getting left behind?

The Premier League dominates football headlines. But across the country, lower division clubs play a key role in their local communities as well as developing talent. While chasing the higher-level leagues can be costly, some clubs are establishing enterprising initiatives, including in education.

Public spending, taxes & debt

Fiscal rules: what value if they change whenever politically convenient?

The UK has had seven different sets of fiscal rules since 2010, suggesting that they are simply not fit for purpose. Sound fiscal policy urgently needs the Chancellor to accept accountability and transparency, including an annual ‘state of the economy’ address outlining progress – and failure.

Prices & interest rates

Could tensions between Iran and Israel trigger a new wave of inflation?

The immediate inflationary impact of widening conflict in the Middle East is likely to be limited. But potential trade and supply chain disruptions, weakening business sentiment and elevated uncertainty could have major consequences for the global economy. Governments face tough budgetary choices.

Lessons from history

Can there be a diversity premium in the housing market?

Research using historical data from Northern Ireland indicates that house prices are higher in more diverse neighbourhoods. Housing policy should focus on regenerating neighbourhoods, improving public services and fostering social integration.

Families & households

How can policy reduce food poverty among children?

Cash benefits boost poor families’ incomes, and if parents struggle to make appropriate spending choices, food vouchers can help them to buy more and better-quality food for their children. But many of the very poorest families fail to take up the vouchers or have restricted eligibility.

Transport & infrastructure

Visitor caps: what potential impact on the world tourism industry?

Caps on the numbers of visitors allowed at certain destinations aim to relieve pressure on hotspots of overtourism. Their introduction presents an opportunity for other places to attract more tourists and students, boost their economies and promote a more sustainable and equitable tourism industry.

Trade & supply chains

What are the economic implications of the UK-EU reset deal?

The May 2025 ‘reset’ between the European Union and the UK addresses frictions that have emerged as a result of Brexit. The economic effects may be somewhat limited, but the agreement reflects political realities and brings stability at a time of heightened global uncertainty.

Prices & interest rates

How long will UK inflation stay above target?

The annual rate of increase in UK consumer prices has fallen slightly to 3.4% but remains above the Bank of England’s target of 2%. Data corrections and measurement quirks dominate this month’s marginal decline. Looking ahead, oil price volatility poses the main upside risk to the inflation outlook.

Trade & supply chains

How might a wider Middle East conflict affect the global economy?

The world economy is underperforming as a result of tight monetary policies, weaker global trade, a slowing Chinese economy and uncertainty around the US election. An escalation of conflict in the Middle East could increase uncertainties, harming inflation reduction efforts and hurting growth.

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