Visitor caps: what potential impact on the world tourism industry?

Caps on the numbers of visitors allowed at certain destinations aim to relieve pressure on hotspots of overtourism. Their introduction presents an opportunity for other places to attract more tourists and students, boost their economies and promote a more sustainable and equitable tourism industry.

A number of tourist destinations – from cities to national parks – in developed countries have introduced measures to limit the number of visitors that they receive. What’s become known as overtourism in countries like Italy and Spain has led to strains on local amenities – a situation highlighted widely on global news and social media.

Imposing caps on inbound tourism aims to alleviate the negative effects of overtourism, such as overcrowding, rising living costs and pressure on local infrastructure. These efforts can also help to maintain the cultural integrity of communities and reduce the strain on natural ecosystems.

One example is Barcelona, where only 800 visitors per day are permitted entry to Gaudi’s Park Güell, and groups are limited to fewer than 15 people in La Boqueria market on La Rambla. Another is the Glacier National Park in Montana, where an online booking system during the summer months restricts numbers.

Other initiatives to curb overtourism include redirecting tourist traffic to distribute economic benefits more evenly. In Amsterdam, for example, the cruise ship terminal has been moved away from the city centre to reduce visitor numbers.

The caps aren’t just targeting leisure tourists: they also extend to other types of tourism, such as educational travel, where young people go abroad to study. Australia – where the international education sector contributes $40 billion annually to the economy – is considering student caps to address pressures on housing and infrastructure.

While the caps are targeted locally, could this approach also reduce inequality in global tourism by fostering growth in under-visited areas?

Rising concerns about overtourism

In recent months, the issue of overtourism has sparked significant concerns across several developed nations, including France, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands and Spain.

Although the challenges of crowding and congestion – which occur when a destination’s carrying capacity is exceeded by the number of tourists – have long been recognised, the term overtourism is relatively new. It was coined to highlight the potential hazards to popular destinations worldwide, as the forces driving tourism can result in unavoidable negative consequences if not properly managed (Edgell, 2019).

Excessive visitor growth can overwhelm local infrastructure and amenities, leading to significant changes in residents’ lifestyles, rising living costs and a diminished quality of life. Cities like Barcelona and Venice, for example, have struggled with tourism-driven congestion, increased housing costs and pressure on public services.

Similarly, the Greek island of Santorini faces chronic overtourism due to the high number of cruise ships docking there. In July, a viral social media post by a local councillor urged residents to stay indoors to accommodate an expected influx of 17,000 cruise passengers, sparking widespread debate on overtourism both locally and internationally.

Many destinations struggle to cope with overcrowding, which has negative effects on both locals and tourists (United Nations World Tourism Organization, UNWTO, 2019). The excessive strain on resources, loss of authenticity and rising prices are well-documented in the media, drawing attention to the need for more effective management of tourism flows (Milano et al, 2019).

What prompts destinations to limit tourist numbers?

While the tourism sector stimulates economic activity and creates jobs, the negative effects associated with overtourism often outweigh their economic benefits.

In response, some destinations have imposed measures such as bans, fines and time-slot systems, while others have launched campaigns to discourage further visitor growth. For example, in May 2024, Japanese authorities introduced a mandatory 2,000 yen climbing fee (approximately £15) at Mount Fuji as part of new crowd control measures aimed at combating overtourism.

The UNWTO report ‘Overtourism’? Understanding and managing urban tourism growth beyond perceptions‘ identifies 11 key strategies that cities are using to manage tourism, such as promoting the dispersal of visitors within and beyond the city, reviewing regulations and ensuring that local communities benefit from tourism. These measures aim to balance the needs of visitors with those of residents and to maintain the sustainability of urban tourism.

Australia’s international student caps

In Australia – one of the world’s leading destinations for international students – policy-makers have introduced caps on the number of international students at educational institutions.

The international education sector contributes $40 billion annually to the Australian economy and support 250,000 jobs, but it faces significant pressure. The surge in international students following the Covid-19 pandemic has strained housing, public transport and amenities in major cities, contributing to a rising cost of living.

In the context of Australia’s current inflationary environment, international students are often blamed for the shortage of rental accommodation in the big cities, for driving up rental prices and, more broadly, for contributing to the rising cost of living. In addition, the government has raised concerns about unscrupulous education providers.

What are the opportunities from caps on tourism and student enrolments?

The caps on the number of tourist arrivals and international student enrolments aim to respond to these challenges.

While they may relieve some of the negative pressures in the countries experiencing overtourism, they also present an opportunity for destinations in emerging and neighbouring economies to attract more tourists and international students. This provides an opportunity for ‘undertourism’ destinations (or less-frequented destinations) to benefit.

To capitalise on this opportunity, emerging and neighbouring economies could focus on four key strategies:

Enhancing their tourism and travel infrastructure (possibly by adapting successful policies from major tourism destinations, such as France and Spain).
Upgrading their educational infrastructure (by adapting some higher education policies in Australia) and attracting Australian universities to set up as higher education providers in these regions.
Launching targeted promotional campaigns (to show international tourists and students that these economies can offer almost similar services and experiences).
Implementing electronic visa systems and expanding visa waiver policies to facilitate the movement of international tourists.

Here are two examples of how this may work in practice.

First, countries like Malaysia and New Zealand could benefit from Australia’s potential cap on international students. Both countries already have relatively advanced higher education systems, and with tailored marketing efforts, they could attract more international students. This could have the knock-on effect of improving their universities’ rankings and contributing to their overall economic activities.

Similarly, by hosting branches of Australian universities, and with its relatively lower cost of living and Islamic cultural environment, Indonesia has the potential to become an attractive destination for Middle Eastern tertiary students seeking a global education.

Second, countries like Morocco, which is geographically close to Spain, could attract more tourists by stabilising their political climate and implementing effective marketing campaigns. By positioning themselves as attractive alternatives to overcrowded destinations, countries like Morocco could significantly enhance their tourism sectors and economic prospects.

In addition, Morocco has the potential to become a key destination for sub-Saharan African students in the higher education sector by implementing integration measures and policies that uphold the rights of migrants.

Bridging the gap between overtourism and undertourism to address inequality

Implementing customised marketing campaigns, strategically investing in travel and tourism infrastructure and enhancing educational quality in undertourism destinations could significantly boost their appeal to tourists and students.

These efforts could help to bridge the gap between overtourism and undertourism destinations, ensuring the development of a more balanced and sustainable global tourism industry.

Currently, the distribution of international tourist arrivals is highly unequal across the globe. While some countries attract a significant number of tourists, others – despite having numerous attractions – experience severe undertourism.

Figure 1 illustrates international tourist trips per 1,000 people in 2019, the year before the onset of the pandemic, measured as trips made by individuals arriving from abroad who stay overnight.

Figure 1: International tourist trips per 1,000 people, 2019

Source: Our World in Data

Redirecting tourists and students within a country

Many of the policies described above are also effective in redistributing tourists and students within a country.

For example, Melbourne and Sydney are top destinations for international students in Australia, primarily due to the presence of high-quality universities and abundant job opportunities. Universities in other regions of the country, in collaboration with local governments and communities, could also attract more international students by highlighting their lower cost of living, high quality of life, natural attractions, improving educational standards and promoting post-graduation career opportunities.

Smaller cities in countries that host major overtourism destinations, such as the Netherlands, could attract more visitors by marketing themselves more effectively. One destination that has been successful at doing this is Delft – a town located near Amsterdam and often referred to as a ‘mini Amsterdam’ due to its network of canals and distinctive Dutch architecture.

In short, redirecting tourists and students within a country benefits less-visited regions economically and socially, while relieving pressure on popular destinations.