Covid-19 and conflict

What does Covid-19, and more specifically national responses to the pandemic, mean for inter-group conflict worldwide? We start by drawing an important distinction between interpersonal conflict (including, e.g., domestic violence) and inter-group conflict. Although concerns of increases in inter-personal conflict is well-studied, less is known about trends of inter-group conflict (including, e.g., armed conflict, riots, protests, and violence against civilians) in the midst of government mandated stay-at-home orders and curfews around the world. Using data on inter-group conflict events from ACLED, we next document a global reduction of intergroup conflict. We then highlight important heterogeneity—across various contexts and different types of inter-group conflict—in this trend by conducting several quantitative case studies.